Explainable Forecasting

Forecasting accuracy is essential, but understanding why a forecast behaves a certain way is just as important for building alignment and trust within an organization. With Explainable Forecasting, powered by SHapley Additive exPlanations, you gain clear, actionable insights into the factors affecting your forecasts. This level of transparency not only enhances trust in the forecasts but also empowers decision-makers to take informed, targeted actions based on those insights.

Unveiling the Black Box

With Explainable Forecasting, you no longer have to choose between complexity and clarity. Our platform provides the transparency you need to explain exactly how and why advanced models make predictions. This means you can leverage cutting-edge forecasting techniques without sacrificing the ability to communicate key drivers to your stakeholders—resulting in both improved accuracy and greater trust.

"I'm unable to use advanced forecasting models because my organization requires clear explanations of the factors influencing the forecast. As a result, I'm restricted to using simple regression, which falls short of delivering the accuracy we need."‍

Key features in Indicio

• User-Friendly Interface
  Despite the technical sophistication of the models, our platform is designed for ease of use. With an intuitive interface, decision-makers can build and deploy complex forecasting models without needing deep technical expertise, making it accessible to everyone.
• Extensive Model Library
  ‍Our platform offers a wide selection of forecasting models, from traditional statistical approaches to advanced machine learning and Bayesian models. Choose from ARIMA, Neural Networks, Error Correction, Lasso, LSTM and more. Whether you're forecasting time series data, mixed-frequency data, or incorporating external variables, we’ve got the right model for you.
  
• Cutting-Edge Forecast Research
  Stay ahead with forecasting models built on the latest research. Guided by our advisory board of international professors, we implement state-of-the-art models, optimize parameter selection, and refine processes from data cleaning to model pooling.
• Fully Automated
  Save time with fully automated model building. Our platform intelligently selects and fine-tunes the best models for your specific data and objectives. The automation ensures high performance without the need for extensive manual intervention, empowering decision-makers to generate accurate forecasts quickly.
• Fast Deployment:
  Time is critical in decision-making. With our platform, you can build, evaluate, and deploy your forecasting models faster than ever before. By automating the complex processes, we help you generate actionable insights in real time, keeping you ahead of the curve.

Frequently asked questions

What does “explainable forecasting” mean in Indicio?

‍In Indicio, explainable forecasting means you see more than just the forecast values. You can clearly see which drivers push the forecast up, which pull it down, and how each factor contributes to the final number.

How do you show which drivers have the biggest impact on the forecast?

Indicio quantifies each driver’s contribution to a forecast and visualizes it in SHAP charts that highlight positive drivers and negative barriers. Variable selection rankings show which inputs explain most of the variance, and scenario analysis lets you see how changing a driver shifts the forecast.

Can I see why a forecast changed between two runs or scenarios?

Yes. Forecasts in Indicio are version controlled, so you can revisit past runs with their results, scenarios, drivers, and selected models.
To compare a scenario, you create a new scenario and view it's result side by side with existing scenarios and forecasts to see what changed and by how much.

How are model assumptions, parameters, and variable selection documented?

Indicio keeps a full audit trail for each forecast. You can see which models were used, their key assumptions and parameters, and the variable selection results including included drivers, transformations, and rankings. This is stored with the run so you can review or export it later.

How can I share forecast explanations with non technical stakeholders?

You can share explanations by exporting SHAP charts as images or downloading the underlying SHAP tables for each forecast point, then including them in presentations, reports, or your BI tools for non technical stakeholders.

Explore more features

Build models

Building forecasting models doesn’t have to be complex!
In Indicio, it's just a few clicks

Scenario Analysis

Simulate the effect on your business, if inflation increases or a slowdown in the economy

Variable Selection

Choosing the right variables can make all the difference between accurate and unreliable forecasts.