Retail Sales

Accurately forecast sales in multiple regions and product groups to gain a competitive edge

There's a more effective approach to accurately determine where to allocate your resources.

Forecasting Retail Sales

Forecasting Retail Trade requires analyzing a blend of macroeconomic drivers, such as unemployment rate, short-term bonds, energy prices, and interest rates.

Assessing and anticipating these factors is vital for understanding market volatility and its impact on the aviation industry.

< 3 mins

Time taken to
identify most
relevant indicators

No. of leading
indicators tested

99,8%

MAPE
forecast
accuracy

*Indicio captures the group effect of the leading indicators, the relevance ranking of each indicator changes over time.

View full forecast results Get access to the latest indicators

Here are the leading indicators identified using Indicio:

Main variable: United States, Retail Sales, Total, Calendar Adjusted, SA, USD

Indicator name	Influence
United States, Unemployment, Jobless Claims, Initial, Total, SA, 4 Week Moving Average	⭐⭐⭐
United States, Government Benchmarks, Federal Reserve, 6 Month, Yield	⭐⭐
United States, Commodities & Energy Prices, Retail Fuel Prices, Gasoline, Regular, All Formulations, Average Price, USD	⭐⭐
Trend: United States, Domestic Trade, Retail Trade, Retail Sales, Total, Calendar Adjusted, SA, USD	⭐
United States, Oil & Gas, Rig Counts, By Basin, Total US Rig Count, Gas	⭐
United States, Government Benchmarks, Federal Reserve, 7 Year, Yield	⭐
United States, Interbank Rates, LIBOR, 6 Month, Fixing
United States, Consumer Price Index, All Urban Consumers, U.S. City Average, All Items, SA, Change Y/Y
United States, Consumer Surveys, Conference Board, Consumer Confidence Index, Total, Total, SA, Index
United States, Electricity, New York City, USD
United States, Consumer Surveys, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Survey of Consumer Expectations, Inflation Expectations, Median 1-Year Ahead, SA
United States, Consumer Price Index, All Urban Consumers, U.S. City Average, All Items Less Food & Energy, SA, Index
United States, Business Surveys, ISM, Report on Business, Manufacturing, Purchasing Managers', SA, Index
United States, Balance Sheet & Flows of MFI Sector, Commercial Banks, Assets, Bank Credit, Loans & Leases in Bank Credit, Real Estate, Residential, Total, SA, USD
United States, Interbank Rates, LIBOR, 3 Month, Fixing
United States, Real Estate Prices, Home Value Index, All Homes (SFR, Condo/Co-op), United States, SA, USD, Zillow, Residential, Prices
United States, Traffic, Rail, Intermodal Units Originated, Total
United States, Balance Sheet & Flows of MFI Sector, Commercial Banks, Assets, Bank Credit, Loans & Leases in Bank Credit, Real Estate, Residential, Total, SA, USD
United States, Mortgage Lending Rates, Freddie Mac PMMS, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage, Total, Average Interest Rate
United States, Unemployment, National, Jobless Claims, Current Seasonal Factors for Adjusting Weekly Initial Claims
United States, Government Benchmarks, Federal Reserve, 10 Year, Yield
United States, Investor Surveys, AAII, Sentiment Survey, Bull-Bear Spread
United States, Mortgage Lending Rates, MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey, MBA, Jumbo, 30-Year, Total Points

Top indicators identified

United States, Unemployment, Jobless Claims, Initial, Total, SA, 4 Week Moving Average

This variable measures the average number of individuals filing for initial unemployment benefits over the past four weeks. It is a key indicator used to assess the strength and stability of the job market.

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United States, Government Benchmarks, Federal Reserve, 6 Month, Yield

This variable represents the yield with a six-month maturity. This reflects the return investors earn for holding these short-term government bonds until maturity. It's an important indicator of short-term interest rate trends and helps assess the overall economic outlook.

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United States, Retail Fuel Prices, Gasoline, Regular, All Formulations, Average Price, USD

This variable represents the average consumer price in U.S. dollars per gallon for regular-grade gasoline across all formulations sold at retail outlets. It provides insights into the overall health and dynamics of the U.S. energy market.

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Case Study

How a leading retailer increased their market forecast accuracy by 42% and optimized data-driven decision making

Challenge
Their primary concern was inefficient resource allocation due to unclear market shifts and inaccurate demand forecasting. Relying on a univariate model limited their ability to use leading indicators, causing missed opportunities, higher costs, and revenue loss.

Solution
‍Using Indicio, they've now been able to identify new and stronger market-leading indicators, improving forecast accuracy and their ability to detect market trend shifts.