The commercial vehicle segment continues to decline across the board, with CVs (above 16T) registrations numbers retreating -1.9% at 20,365 registrations.
This result was mainly attributed to the decline seen in Germany (-18.8%), Poland(-10.4%) and France (-6.7%).
On the other end, two of the key EU markets - Spain (+28.4%) and Italy (+22%) - saw double-digit growth.
When we forecasted the registration numbers for December, the result came in with a 97% accuracy against the reported registration numbers. Now, let’s take a look at the forecasted numbers for January.
We selected 13 leading indicators that were most relevant to the main variable, tested the strength of their predictive power, and added the outliers that were automatically identified. The multivariate models that best predicted these numbers were the LSTM and VARX Lasso models.
Our indicator analysis algorithm tested these different variables to predict heavy vehicle registrations and these are the top 3 indicators ranked:
1. Trend: Heavy Vehicles 16T
2. World, Global Supply Chain Pressure Index Total, Index
3. Retail Trade Confidence Indicator, Employment Expectations Over the Next Three Months
What’s the outlook like for January?
We built 35 models composed of 13 leading indicators on data from 2003 to 2023. Indicio then weighted each model depending on performances at each horizon to create an aggregate forecast. The indicator analysis strategy we selected was the coefficient search. We anticipate a downtrend with 21.190K heavy vehicles (above 16T) registrations in Jan, representing a +6.4% YoY increase compared to Jan 2022.
Interested to learn more about how you can use this methodology to generate your forecasts?
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