We built 21 econometric models using ACEA data from 2003 and let our algorithms find the relevant leading indicators to obtain the highest accuracy.

We included several special events that disrupted truck sales in the past, such as the global financial crisis, tachographs regulations in 2006 and 2019, emission standards in 2013, and more recently the pandemic. One can notice clear spikes and slumps that severely affected the otherwise linear market growth.

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What can we expect for 2022?

We expect a seasonal increase at the beginning of the year with 22.91K (20K – 25.72K) heavy vehicle registrations in January, a 10% increase from December. Total registrations will be on the upside in 2022 as we anticipate 268K, an 11% increase from 2021. The recovery rate will be 96% by the end of the year, compared to 2019, as we expect full recovery by January 2023.

Find out how you can use the same methodology to forecast your own data by booking a free demo.

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