An overview of May
Nearly all markets in Central Europe recorded gains, contributing to the positive performance of the region, with Latvia seeing the highest increase (+86.9%). Looking at the four major markets in Western Europe, only Spain recorded negative growth (‑4.6%). Germany posted a modest expansion (+2.4%), whereas France and Italy witnessed double-digit gains (+14.6% and +14.3% respectively).
EU heavy vehicle registrations saw the number of heavy commercial vehicles registered hit 21,896 units, making this an 8% YoY growth.
Starting off strong were the four major markets in Western Europe. With the exception of Spain (-4.6%), the four major markets in Western Europe started strong. Germany posted a modest expansion (+2.4%), whereas France and Italy witnessed double-digit gains (+14.6% and +14.3% respectively).
Gains were also seen in nearly all markets in Central Europe, with Latvia experiencing the strongest performance (+86.8%).
What does June look like?
We forecasted the European heavy vehicle market using Indicio. We built 33 univariate and multivariate models, composed of 15 leading indicators on data from 2003 to 2022. Indicio weighted each model depending on performances at each horizon to create an aggregate forecast. We anticipate a slight uptrend with 23.34k (17.21 - 29.48) new heavy vehicle registrations in June, a seasonal 17.1% increase from May and a 6.6% YoY increase compared to June 2021.
Our indicator analysis algorithm tested these different variables to predict heavy vehicle registrations and the 3 best were ranked as such:
1. Euro Area, Business Surveys DG ECFIN, Business Climate
2. Euro Area, Foreign Trade, CPB World Trade Monitor, Export, Price, Index, USD
3. Retail Trade Confidence Indicator, Sale of Motor Vehicles, Confidence Indicator, SA
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