Overview of September's registrations
Once again, September’s result was primarily driven by growth in the Central European countries. A solid triple-digit YoY percentage gain was seen in both Croatia and Lithuania, reporting 173.5% and 154.2%, respectively.
Overall, the YoY registrations came in strong with the heavy vehicles (above 16T) segment, registering a 21% increase attributed to gains seen in all EU markets, except for Portugal, reporting a 35.7% decline.
Using Indicio, we selected 13 leading indicators that were most relevant to the main variable, tested the strength of their predictive power, and added the outliers that were automatically identified. The multivariate models that best predicted these numbers were the VARX Lasso models.
Our forecasted numbers came within a hair of September’s reported registration numbers - 22.56K registrations against the reported 22,175, a 98% forecast accuracy.
Our indicator analysis algorithm tested these different variables to predict heavy vehicle registrations and these are the top 3 indicators ranked:
1. Trend: Heavy Vehicles 16T
2. World, Global Supply Chain Pressure Index Total, Index
3. Retail Trade Confidence Indicator, Sale of Motor Vehicles, Orders Expectations Over the Next 3 Months, SA
What’s the outlook like for October?
We built 35 models composed of 13 leading indicators on data from 2003 to 2022. Indicio then weighted each model depending on performances at each horizon to create an aggregate forecast. We anticipate an uptrend with 24.29K heavy vehicles (above 16T) registrations in October, representing a 21.9% YoY increase compared to October 2021.
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