Case study
With a branch in this manufacturer serving the consumer goods market, they needed to get insight into the textile production volumes and export numbers to determine the key drivers that would impact their chemical production, and guide their market strategies for both product and region categories.Not being able to forecast demand accurately and the lack of clarity over the impact of macroeconomic factors meant that they did not have full visibility over resource allocation. This led to unnecessary costs and potential lost revenue.
Currently utilizing a bottom-up approach, their forecasting method relied solely on a simple univariate model, which presented a significant limitation. This approach hindered their ability to incorporate macroeconomic factors or leading indicators into their aggregated forecast. As a result, they missed critical insights, as univariate models are inherently unable to account for broader economic conditions, adversely affecting the overall forecasting accuracy.
The risks associated with only applying univariate forecasting models meant that they were missing out on the opportunity to apply leading indicators to their aggregated forecast as univariate forecasting models do not allow for that.