How Indicio improves forecast accuracy performance

Rapidly build a wide range of sophisticated and statistically robust forecasts with zero coding.

Expect increased accuracy, transparency, and speed.

Our users have detected trend shifts at least 1-2 months earlier than they did with previous methods, with a 40-60% improvement in overall accuracy.

Build statistically robust forecasts with zero-coding

In a fraction of time, you can input and select the leading indicators that matter to your business.

Indicio transforms your data, build & backtest models, and performs model averaging, pointing out which of these indicators are actually relevant to your main variable (Be it sales or demand).

Spend your time gaining actual insights to move the needle, instead of getting caught up in building the statistical framework.

> Get instant access to leading data sources

Instead of relying solely on sales historical data, we use multivariate analysis to uncover more intricate relationships.

Each indicator is defined as a function of the others in order to see how they interact.

This way, instead of treating each indicator's impact separately, our models capture interactions between them and their influence on your sales.

By using Lasso and other regularisation techniques through cross-validation, we ensure that only the relevant indicators are represented, delivering the most accurate results.

For companies that rely on qualitative forecasting methods or planning tools that only take historical data into consideration, biases can impact forecast accuracy negatively.

To meet that challenge, Indicio runs advanced statistical models,
unaffected by subjectivity.

All the models are then weighted based on their performance, ultimately increasing forecast accuracy. 

We've made it easy to conduct a historical accuracy evaluation.

This includes backtesting and evaluating model performance, Indicio creates previous forecasts that are compared against actual outcome.

Chart showing leading indicators.

Leverage a data-driven methodology

We've built an econometric model (VAR) to identify leading indicators. Vector autoregression is a workhorse model in macroeconomics that defines each indicator as a function of other indicators. This way, instead of treating each indicator’s impact separately, the model captures interactions between them and their influence on your sales.

By using a lasso penalty through cross-validation, we ensure that only the relevant indicators are represented, delivering the most accurate results.

Hierarchical Forecasting

Reconcile your forecasts
& get a single source of truth

Forecast every possible level in the hierarchy.

This means you'll get demand forecasts that are coherent with top-level forecasting results.

Scenario Analysis

Improve
planning agility
by conducting a sensitivity analysis

Inflation set to increase? Crude oil prices to dip?

Get increased control and optimize capacity to prepare for both pessimistic and optimistic situations.

Make better decisions
with improved forecast accuracy

Our customers have seen a minimum of 30% improvement in forecast accuracy after using Indicio when forecasting.

We'll help you identify your leading indicators
Find out how much you can improve your accuracy