Commodities

Forecasting aluminum prices

Forecasting Aluminium Prices requires analyzing a blend of factors extending beyond industry fundamentals, encompassing broader market conditions, investor sentiment, and economic trends.

Using the Indicio methodology, we've uncovered the most relevant leading indicators driving the prices.

< 3 mins

Time taken to
identify most
relevant indicators

20+

Relevant
leading
indicators

97%

MAPE
forecast
accuracy

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Here are the leading indicators identified in Indicio:

Forecasted variable: London Metal Exchange (LME)-Aluminium 99.7% Cash United States Dollar Per Metric Tonne
Indicator name Influence
United States, Manufacturers New Orders, Durable Goods, Aluminium and Nonferrous Metals ⭐⭐⭐
China, Production, by Commodity, Aluminium Products, Growth Rate, Cumulative, Change y/y ⭐⭐
Aluminium-Stocks London Metal Exchange (LME) in Warehouses-Metric Tonne ⭐⭐
Bloomberg Aluminum 3 Month Forward Excess Return
European Energy Exchange(EEX) - Phelix Base Hour 01-24 Euro/Megawatt Hour
London Metal Exchange (LME)-Aluminium 99.7% 3 Months United States Dollar Per Metric Tonne
Google trends: aluminium price
Nordpool ASA Elspot Base Fixing System Price - Average in Norwegian Krone
Amsterdam Power Exchange(APX) Electricity Netherlands Average All Hours
London Metal Exchange (LME)-North American Special Aluminium Alloy Short Ton Louis Warehouse Stocks
London Metal Exchange (LME)-North American Special Aluminium Alloy Chicago Warehouse Stocks
London Metal Exchange (LME)-Aluminium Baltimore Warehouse
London Metal Exchange (LME)-North American Special Aluminium Alloy Baltimore Warehouse Stocks
London Metal Exchange (LME)-Aluminium Bilbao Warehouse Stocks
Georgia, Exports, Commodities, Aluminium Waste and Scrap, USD
London Metal Exchange (LME)-Aluminium Alloy Genoa Warehouse

Top indicators identified

United States, Manufacturers New Orders, Durable Goods, Aluminium and Nonferrous Metals, Current Prices, SA, USD

When manufacturers place new orders for aluminum,
it suggests an anticipated increase in their production activities, which typically requires a sufficient supply of raw materials like aluminum.

How we can help you

China, Production, by Commodity, Aluminium Products, Growth Rate, Cumulative, Change y/y

This reflects shifts in the demand-supply balance. Higher production growth rates indicate increased output, outpacing domestic demand. This could result in excess supply in the market, leading to lower prices.

How we can help you

Aluminium-Stocks London Metal Exchange (LME) in Warehouses-Metric Tonne

The level of aluminum stocks in LME warehouses reflects the physical inventory available for delivery.

Monitoring these stocks helps assess the availability of aluminum in the market & potential impact on prices.

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Toyota Material Handling

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Head of Macro
LF Bank
Customer success story

Here's how a company in the commodities sector improved its forecasting process & accuracy by more than 50%

Going from using the same 5 indicators, to testing a large set of indicators, they received immediate feedback on which indicators to use or consider for each forecast.

This also gave them the ability to track market trend shifts at a higher frequency and improve their forecasts.

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