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Nowcasting the US NFP requires analyzing a blend of high-frequency indicators, like Initial jobless claims, Purchasing Managers index, Deposits, Inflation, GDP growth, and unemployment rates, as they provide insight into the overall health of the labor market. Additionally, industry-specific trends, government policies, and seasonal hiring patterns play critical roles.
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Jobless claims indicate the number of people who have filed for unemployment benefits for the first time, reflecting the current state of the labor market and economic conditions. Tracking this metric provides insights into employment trends and the overall health of the economy.
CPI measures the average change in prices over time. This index reflects the overall cost of living and is seasonally adjusted (SA) to account for predictable fluctuations, providing a clearer view of underlying inflation trends. The CPI-U is widely used as an economic indicator to gauge inflation and adjust income payments, such as Social Security.
The Johnson Redbook Index is a measure of retail sales growth in the United States, focusing on same-store sales at large chain stores. The "Total, Same Store, Change Y/Y" component represents the year-over-year percentage change in retail sales for stores that have been open for at least one year. This data provides insight into trends in consumer spending and overall retail performance in the domestic U.S. trade sector.
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