Commodities

Forecasting oil prices

Forecasting Crude Oil Prices requires analyzing a combination of factors, such as petroleum consumption, the stock level of oil, and search volumes on Google.

< 2 mins

Time taken to
identify most
relevant indicators

10+

Relevant
leading
indicators

94%

MAPE
forecast
accuracy

*Indicio captures the group effect of the leading indicators, the relevance ranking of each indicator changes over time.
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Here are the leading indicators identified using Indicio:

Main variable:
Crude Oil Prices: West Texas Intermediate (WTI) - Cushing, Oklahoma
Indicator name Influence
Crude Oil Prices: West Texas Intermediate (WTI) - Cushing, Oklahoma ⭐⭐⭐
Petroleum Consumption Excluding Ethanol Quadrillion British Thermal Unit ⭐⭐⭐
United Kingdom, Input Prices, Basic Iron, Steel and Alloys, Tubes, Pipes, Hollow Profiles and Fittings, Index, 2015 = 100 ⭐⭐
United States, Stocks : Crude Oil Excluding SPR (MB) ⭐⭐
Google trends: Oil
Trend: Crude Oil Prices: West Texas Intermediate (WTI) - Cushing, Oklahoma
United States, Production of Crude Oil Including Lease Condensate
United States, Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels, End-of-Period Inventories, Commercial Inventory
United States, Stocks : Crude Oil in SPR (MB)
United Kingdom, Input Prices, Crude Oil, Index, 2015 = 100
United States, Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels, Inventory Net Withdrawals
CBOE Crude Oil ETF Volatility Index
Crude Oil Production, Total OPEC Thousand Barrels / Day

Top indicators identified

Trend: Crude Oil Prices: West Texas Intermediate (WTI) - Cushing, Oklahoma

This variable provides insights into the demand-supply balance, production activity, lead-lag relationships, market sentiment, seasonal variations, and the interconnectedness of the construction materials and machinery sectors.

How we can help you

CBOE Crude Oil ETF Volatility Index

This provides valuable insights into market dynamics, consumer confidence, spending trends, and seasonal patterns, all of which can impact the level of new orders received by manufacturers for construction machinery.

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United States, Production of Crude Oil Including Lease Condensate

Hitachi Construction Machinery is a prominent player in the construction machinery industry. If Hitachi Construction Machinery experiences significant changes in their sales or order volumes, it can be indicative of broader market conditions and potentially influence the demand for construction machinery.

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