Commodities

Forecasting Ethane and Ethylene Consumption

Ethane and ethylene are closely related hydrocarbons, and is a key building block for producing various chemicals, plastics, and synthetic materials.

Identifying what drives its consumption is typically relevant to the chemical manufacturing industry, particularly the production of plastics and other derivatives.

< 2 mins

Time taken to
identify most
relevant indicators

14+

Relevant
leading
indicators

96%

MAPE
forecast
accuracy

*Indicio captures the group effect of the leading indicators, the relevance ranking of each indicator changes over time.
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Here are the leading indicators identified using Indicio:

Main variable:
United States, HGL Consumption, Ethane / Ethylene
Indicator name Influence
EU, Manufacturers' New Orders: Motor Vehicles and Parts ⭐⭐⭐⭐
United States, Dow Jones, Averages, Industrial Index, Price Return, End of Period ⭐⭐⭐
Business leaders survey - Business Climate - USA
Personal Consumption Expenditures, SAAR
Gross Domestic Product USA
United States, Manufacturers Shipments, Nondurable, Paints, Coatings and Adhesives, Current Prices, SA, USD
Producer Price Index, United States, Chlorine, US
United States, E-Commerce, Current Prices, SA, USD
New car registrations USA
University of Michigan: Consumer Sentiment

Top indicators identified

Manufacturers' New Orders: Motor Vehicles and Parts

Modern vehicles utilize a significant amount of plastics, which reduces the weight of the vehicle, helps improve fuel efficiency, and offers design flexibility. Ethylene is a primary building block for many of these plastics. When there's a surge in new orders for motor vehicles and parts, it could mean a corresponding increase in the demand for plastics used in the automotive industry.

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United States, Dow Jones, Averages, Industrial Index, Price Return, End of Period

The DJIA is often considered a barometer of the overall U.S. economy and industrial activity. A rising DJIA suggests positive investor sentiment, optimism about the future, and the expectation of strong economic activity. A growing economy often leads to increased manufacturing and industrial activity, which can increase the consumption of petrochemicals like ethane and ethylene.

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Business leaders survey - Business Climate - USA

This variable refers to the price of Brent crude oil in the spot market, typically quoted on a per-barrel basis. Brent crude is one of the major trading classifications of sweet light crude oil and serves as a major benchmark price for worldwide oil purchases.

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